If anyone is interested, I posted my slides from the Flash and the City conference in New York.My session is entitled "The Next Generation of Flash User Experience" and is featured as a Top presentation on SlideShare today.
Check it out! http://j.mp/SuttleFATC10
It's a nice deck and a great overview of Flash 10.1. Also not a bad job on dispelling some of Jobs' myths being propagated about Flash's lack of readiness for touch screens. It doesn't hit Jobs' problem of letting another development tool become the defacto development tool for the platform other than Coco Touch. The point you made about it being at 90%+ actually does more to make his point than make yours.
If Apple has a development community of 3 million flash devs who start using Adobe's development tool to develop for Apple's mobile platform, Adobe now has a major stake in whatever Apple decides to do. If Apple releases a patch that inadvertently breaks some underlying connection that tool uses to interact with Apple's system, 3 million flash developers aren't blaming Adobe, they're blaming Apple (and by extension, App USERS blame Apple for screwing up Farmville and letting their crops die). This means that Apple has to start coordinating with another vendor on the inner workings of their API for every release and if Adobe doesn't like the direction it's taking, it now has the power to influence design decisions on Apple's product line and if Apple doesn't do what it asks, it could just break things on purpose because it knows that the bad will will all fall on Apple - "My iPhone sucks because Farmville keeps crashing...I heard Droid runs Farmville flawlessly". Adobe's tools run anywhere, but now they can effectively influence purchasing decision between devices based on the quality of their integration. So Apple has decided it's better not to run Flash at all than to be at Adobe's mercy.
Adobe is in the somewhat unique and unusual position of being unwanted on popular platforms with platform owners locking it out in favor of their own Flash alternatives, or worse, open standards that directly target its functionality. I'm kind of surprised that they haven't tried to sue Apple and Microsoft for the right to run a Flash app on their phones, but the fact that some manufacturers are allowing them on makes it hard to make an argument that they're being anti-competitive. Frankly, I'm surprised Adobe hasn't launched its own mobile OS that is basically a browser with a flash UI hosting other flash apps. Can you imagine the insane number of appstore apps that would be instantly available?
Anyway, nice slides and you do a good job of making your point. Maybe content will be king, but maybe it will just end up that there are multiple kingdoms.
I've heard many people say that Flash will not be around much longer and will soon be dead. As someone outside of the Flash community I have no idea whether this is the case.
Any thoughts on this?
Useful technologies rarely die, but they do become niche products, serving well either narrow needs to people still entrenched in the product.
If they haven't done so already, Adobe needs to wake up and smell the coffee -- it's been in the pot too long and is getting a bit scorched, so fewer people want to drink it. (How many here run with a Flash blocker extension on? I do, and my browser crashes have gone from 2-3 a day to 2-3 a month.) Adobe can't be comfortable knowing that an increasing number of people are being vocal about their difficulties with Flash and their efforts to find/provide other solutions.
(And isn't that what happened with Internet Explorer, and Word, and Outlook: people couldn't stand the problems they had with Microsoft products and they complained about it, and they sought out and created other solutions. Firefox, Safari, Chrome, Thunderbird, Open Office, iWork, etc., etc. Microsoft remains strong, but weakened and no longer unbeatable.)
Apple is merely providing the most visible/vocal opposition to Flash, but they aren't alone. This sortie wan't kill Flash, but it will wound it, and maybe knock it off the top of he hill. And with luck, Adobe with realize that the best way to fight back is to actually admit to and address the issues that people complain about. Flash deserves to live, maybe, but only if it gets better.
On May 24, 2010, at 10:37 AM, Sean Pook wrote:
> I've heard many people say that Flash will not be around much longer and will soon be dead. As someone outside of the Flash community I have no idea whether this is the case.
> Any thoughts on this?
@nixkuroi: Thanks for checking out the deck and for the wonderful and well-informed feedback.
@Sean: Actually, I've posted a lot about this issue on my blog. Here are the results for the term 'HTML5' on my blog which sum up my thoughts on Flash's lifespan: http://kevinsuttle.com/tag/html5/
Fla$h is dead, it will be a pariah format used only on the "xxx TLD"
> @nixkuroi: Thanks for checking out the deck and for the wonderful and
> well-informed feedback.
> @Sean: Actually, I've posted a lot about this issue on my blog. Here are
> results for the term 'HTML5' on my blog which sum up my thoughts on
> lifespan: http://kevinsuttle.com/tag/html5/Â
As buddhist, and student of computer science and of product design; I'm
formally applying to the position of back'up CEO of Apple.inc ...sh*t, I
should have bought Apple stock back in the day... now I will have to make
a Software Libre Design and Development technological company (and force
Apple to buy it, or compete... MSFT and now Adobe are becoming industry
> Interestingly HK IxDA group had the same discussion about âFlash's
> lifespanâ. Me personally I usually look to explore options and to
> incorporate new and old solutions, such as flash if it works for a certain
> project, partially or fully. About flash fading, perhaps it started from
> Steve Jobsâ thoughts on Flash:
@ElvenMuse - I'm never sure if you're serious :) How are Apple and Microsoft becoming industry jokes? What industry is that?
Adobe isn't going away anytime soon. They still own Photoshop, Illustrator, Acrobat, Premiere and After Effects (ALL industry standard image or video applications). Flash isn't going to have any problems if Droid picks up even 10-20% of the mobile market share because Flash 10.1 is supported in Android 2.2 (Froyo). Plus, the majority of desktop users don't care about whether flash runs in their phone while they're using their desktop.
Microsoft's core business isn't even in Rich Internet Applications. They make most of their money on Windows, Office, SQL Server and Visual Studio. YET...Silverlight has reached 70%+ browser support (thanks to Netflix and the Olympics) in less than 3 years. They haven't really done much trying with IE in the past 10 years and it still has a 60%+ browser market share You can look at that to improve dramatically once Google's 60 million dollar yearly investment in Mozilla ends in 2011 (http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9120866/Google_deal_produces_88_of_Mozilla_s_revenue) which means IE and Chrome are likely to divide up Mozilla's share in the 2-3 years that follow as Mozilla development and support stall.
While I'm sure Apple is poised to continue to grow, I think it's unrealistic to think Adobe and Microsoft are jokes of any kind. Chances are, most of us here will still be using products from one or both companies for the foreseeable future and it's LIKELY that one of those products will be an HTML5 authoring tool. :)
Just so you all know, a project called "Smokescreen" has been created and will, on the fly, convert SWF (even with Actionscript bytecode) into HTML 5/SVG.
Info here: http://smokescreen.us/
See @elvinmuse? It's not dead. It was just waiting for a new player :D